Maritime Threat Picture

in collaboration with NORTH

Alarm raised after intruders spotted by crew view more

Authorities seize cocaine worth over $50 million from a container ship view more

Thieves operating in Lagos Secure Anchorage view more

Coast Guard search vessel after thieves spotted on-board view more

Attempt to board vessel off Puerto La Cruz view more

Crew reported kidnapped from containership off Cotonou, Benin view more

Thieves threaten to kill watchman view more

Vessel found abandoned with engine running view more

VENEZUELA - Risk: Robbery on the rise in Venezuela's ports view more

ROMANIA - Risk: Authorities impose strict policies for exchanging and deballasting in Romania view more

SOMALIA - Risk: Ships should register with the EU’s Maritime Security Centre Horn of Africa view more

VENEZUELA - Risk: Economic and social turmoil contribute to deteriorating port security. view more

Chrome cargoes causing confusion in Mozambique view more

Nigeria - Risk: Sharp rise in the number of vessels being boarded by intruders view more

Libya – Risk: Tankers and their crews being detained on suspicion of oil smuggling view more

NIGERIA/GULF OF GUINEA: Risk - Piracy threat in Gulf of Guinea view more

PERU - Risk: of robberies from ships in Callao view more

COTE D'IVOIRE - Risk: Difficult navigation and port conditions in Abidjan view more

Threat: Hijacking and boarding for theft in South China Sea view more

MALACCA STRAIT - Risk: robbery. Maintain strict anti-piracy and robbery watches. view more

SINGAPORE STRAIT - Risk: Armed robbery whilst transiting the Singapore Strait view more

Risk: Syrian sanctions view more

IRAN - Risk: Iranian Sanctions view more

LIBYA - Risk: fines issued for delays in discharging at Misurata, Libya view more

Risk: Drug trafficking at Puerto Cabello, Lake Maracaibo and Orinoco River ports view more

ALGERIA - Risk: Customs fines in Algeria view more

VIETNAM - Risk: Bulk cargo shortage claims in Vietnam view more

Ice-conditions at Ukrainian ports view more

SENEGAL - Risk: Hull staining at Dakar, Senegal view more

SUDAN - Risk: Damage and shortage claims for bagged cargo in Port Sudan view more

UAE - Risk Possible delays caused by disembarking crew due to injury or sickness at Fujairah, UAE view more

CAMEROON - Risk: Fines imposed for sewage treatment plant effluent non-compliance view more

CHINA - Risk: Theft from ships in Tianjin anchorage view more

GUINEA - Risk: armed robbery at Conakry Anchorage view more

PHILIPPINES - Theft from vessels in Manila and Batangas view more

VENEZUELA - Risk: Delays due to hull cleaning in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela view more

SENEGAL - Risk: Fines for inaccurate bunker customs declarations in the port of Dakar, Senegal view more

INDIA - Risk: Fines and delays for seafarers failing to submit a Yellow Fever vaccination certificate in Mumbai, India view more

EGYPT- Risk: Fines for fender damage claims in Egyptian ports view more

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Risk: Fines for unauthorised transit through marine reserve areas view more

ARGENTINA - Risk: Grounding in the Parana River, Argentina view more

PERU - Risk: Unexpected charges for sludge removal services at ports in Peru view more

SAUDI ARABIA & UAE Risk: Infection from Middle East Respiratory Syndrome - Corona Virus (MERS-CoV) view more

MEXICO - Risk: Shipper's surveyor forcing Masters to accept pre-prepared non-clausable mate's receipts at Veracruz, Mexico view more

URUGUAY - Risk: Fines and delays for non-compliance with Uruguayan Oil Spill Response Organisation (OSRO) contract requirements view more

AUSTRALIA - Risk: Navigation through the Great Barrier Reef and Torres Strait, Australia view more

ARGENTINA - Risk: Customs fines for short landing fertilizer cargoes in Argentina view more

ANGOLA - Risk: Fines, ship arrest and delays for carrying out non-approved bunkering operations in Angolan waters view more

LIBYA - Risk: Ship arrest for loading banned illicit crude oil from Libya view more

HONG KONG - Risk: Fines for non-compliance with Hong Kong - Air Pollution Control (Ocean Going Vessels) (Fuel at Berth) Regulations view more

USA - Risk: Fines for non-compliance with MARPOL Annex VI within the US Emission Control Area view more

VENEZUELA - Risk: Self heating petroleum coke at Amuay Terminal, Venezuela view more

CAMEROON - Risk: Vessels grounding in the approaches to Douala port, Cameroon view more

CHINA - Risk: Fines following illegal discharges into the Bohai Sea and China's inland waterways view more

AUSTRALIA - Risk: Detentions and delays arising from Port State Control (PSC) inspections and non-compliance with MLC 2006 regulations view more

SOUTH AFRICA - Risk: Costs and consequences for repatriating stowaways at the port of Cape Town view more

UKRAINE - Risk: Ballast water sampling requirements, Ukraine view more

CHINA - Risk: The collection of tax from non-resident taxpayers engaged in international transportation business with China view more

SAUDI ARABIA - Risk: Potential shortage claims when loading bulk sulphur at Jubail, Saudi Arabia view more

COTE D'IVOIRE - Risk: Ship arrest as a result of paper shortage claims in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire view more

PAKISTAN - Risk: Ship arrest and customs fines as a result of fabricated coal cargo shortage claims in Karachi, Pakistan view more

BULGARIA - Risk: P&I claims arising from grain cargo contamination loaded at Varna, Bulgaria view more

ROMANIA - Risk: P&I claims arising from grain cargo contamination loaded at Constantza, Romania view more

CHINA - Risk: Navigation danger due to expansion of aquaculture at Lanshan, China view more

CANADA - Risk: Ice navigation in Canadian waters during the winter months view more

CHINA - Risk: Fines, Port State Control detentions and delays for breaching regulations for passing through the Qiongzhou Straits, China view more

COTE D'IVOIRE - Risk: Fines imposed by customs officials due to inaccuracies in customs documentation at Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire view more

VENEZUELA - Risk: Misdeclared metallic iron content of Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) cargoes at San Felix, Venezuela view more

MALAYSIA - Risk: Bauxite with a high moisture content loaded at Kuantan, Malaysia, may be prone to liquefaction view more

GABON - Risk: Fines imposed by customs officials due to inaccuracies in port clearance documentation at Port Gentil, Gabon view more

CHINA - Risk: Fertilizer loaded in Chinese ports susceptible to caking and contamination view more

COTE D'IVOIRE - Risk: Delays resulting from port officials' refusal to land stowaways at Abidjan and San Pedro, Cote d'Ivoire view more

CHINA - Risk: Danger to navigation due to sea ice in the Baohai Sea, China view more

KUWAIT - Risk: Claims arising from grain cargo shortages in Shuwaikh port, Kuwait view more

CHINA - Risk: Cargo claims and potential liquefaction of fluorspar cargoes in China view more

PAKISTAN - Risk: Bulk liquid cargo shortage claims in Karachi, Pakistan view more

BRAZIL - Risk: Bauxite with a high moisture content loaded at Trombetas, Brazil may be prone to liquefaction view more

SAUDI ARABIA - Risk: Grain cargo shortage claims at Saudi Arabian ports view more

ANGOLA - Risk: Damages and shortage claims for bagged rice cargoes to Luanda view more

INDONESIA - Risk: Potential mis-declaration of Indonesian nickel ore cargoes in Indonesia view more

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - Risk: US Environmental Protection Agency fines for noncompliance with MARPOL Annex VI low sulphur content fuels. view more

UKRAINE - Risk: Black-listing and possible ship arrest resulting from previously visiting Crimean ports view more

THAILAND - Risk: Fines and delays as a result of loading/discharging dangerous goods without permission from Thailand's Marine Safety and Environment Bureau/Harbour Department view more

TURKEY - Risk: Fines for short landing of cargo at Turkish ports view more

HONG KONG - Risk: Fines for emitting dark smoke in the port of Hong Kong view more

INDONESIA - Risk: Fraudulent Port State Control (PSC) inspection charges in Indonesia view more

SIERRA LEONE - Risk: Issues loading iron ore during the rainy season in Sierra Leone view more

GHANA - Risk: Bauxite with a high moisture content loaded at Takoradi may be prone to liquefaction view more

SIERRA LEONE - Risk: Problems associated with the loading of bauxite on the Sherbro River, Sierra Leone view more

SOUTH AFRICA - Risk: Costs and consequences for repatriating stowaways at the port of Durban view more

NORTH AMERICA - Risk: Delays due to the discovery of Asian Gypsy Moth in Canada and the USA view more

SUDAN - Risk: Regular shortage claims following the discharge of bulk wheat at Port Sudan view more

ALGERIA -Risk: Customs fines due to shortage claims for grain cargoes shipped to Algeria view more

INDIA - Risk: Cargo claims and potential liquefaction of iron ore cargoes in Goa, India view more

MEXICO - Risk: Delays, ship arrest and problems loading iron ore cargo in Mexican ports view more

MEXICO - Risk: Drug cartel activity and acts of violence in and around Mexican port cities view more

South America - Risk: Drug Trafficking throughout South America view more

SOUTH AFRICA - Risk: Ships anchoring in South African coastal waters are obliged to first obtain permission from the South African Maritime Safety Authority view more

YEMEN - Risk: Sanctions and the US Department of the Treasury Specially Designated Nationals List for Yemen view more

SENEGAL - Risk: Senegalese authorities forbid the landing of stowaways at the port of Dakar view more

CAMEROON - Risk: Fines and delays as a result of exaggerated cargo claims at the port of Douala view more

BENIN - Risk: Exaggerated shortage claims resulting in customs fines view more

YEMEN - Risk: Fines, delays and detention as a result of differences in oil record books and shipboard retention of oils, Yemen view more

YEMEN - Risk: Fabricated stevedore personal Injury claims in Yemeni ports view more

YEMEN - Risk: Fines, ship arrest and possible delays as a result of late reporting of Fixed and Floating Object (FFO) claims in Yemen view more

YEMEN - Risk: Ship security as a result of the civil war in Yemen view more

GHANA - Risk: Stowaways boarding or being discovered at Tema Port or Takoradi ports, Ghana view more

SIERRA LEONE - Risk: associated with discharging bulk rice at ports in Sierra Leone view more

JORDAN - Risk: Bulk cargo shortage claims in the port of Aqaba view more

LIBYA - Risk: status of, and security at, Libyan Ports view more

YEMEN - Risk: Ship arrest as a result of exaggerated cargo shortage claims in Yemen view more

AUSTRALIA - Risk: Possible ship detention by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority as a consequence of using non-approved navigation charts in Australian waters view more

COLOMBIA - Risk: Possible delays caused by the Colombian Navy carrying out routine anti-drug trafficking searches in Colombia's ports (Puerto Bolivar, Puerto Neuvo and Puerto Drummond) view more

LIBYA - Risk: Sanctions and US Treasury Specially Designated Nationals List, Libya view more

YEMEN - Risk: Unexpected expenses and fines arising from the shifting of vessels, arrival draught restrictions and exceeding time allotted for discharge in Hodeida view more

TURKEY - Risk: Issues associated with loading steel products in Turkish ports view more

SOUTH AFRICA - Risk: Delays caused by ship detentions due to the discovery of armaments on board merchant vessels in South Africa view more

TUNISIA - Risk: P&I claims and customs fines arising from short landing of cargo in Tunisian ports. view more

SENEGAL - Risk: Senegalese authorities robustly impose customs fines on vessels calling at Dakar view more

SENEGAL - Risk: Restricted availability of bunkers at Dakar roads, Senegal view more

THAILAND - Risk: Problems associated with loading bulk and bagged sugar in Thailand view more

THAILAND - Risk: Old, damaged bagged rice from Thailand view more

THAILAND - Risk: Potential damage to bagged rice due to dunnaging in Thailand view more

NIGERIA – Risk: Nigerian navy arrest vessels employing the services of armed security guards view more

SUDAN - Risk: Fraudulent steel transactions to Port Sudan view more

TAIWAN - Risk: Damage to nets and equipment, safe transit of the coastal fishing zones of Taiwan view more

GUATEMALA - Risk: Nickel ore can liquefy due to excessive moisture content view more

ARGENTINA - Risk: Customs fines in Argentina relating to the misdeclaration of ship's stores view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Eritrea, but only South of 15º N view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Venezuela. view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Yemen view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Syria view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Saudi Arabia, excluding transit view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Lebanon view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Israel view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Iraq, including all Iraqi offshore terminals view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Iran view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Pakistan view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Togo view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Somalia view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea / Gulf of Aden / Gulf of Oman / Southern Red Sea view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Benin view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Nigeria view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Libya view more

Joint War Committee Listed Area: Gulf of Guinea, but only the waters of the Togolese, Beninese and Nigerian Exclusive Economic Zones north of Latitude 3° N view more

USA - Risk: merchant vessels subject to fines and severe delays due to illegal contraband carriage, particularly from the port of Miami and Port Everglades view more

CARIBBEAN - Risk: commercial vessels being used to traffic and smuggle contraband in the Caribbean Basin, particularly to and from the Port of Spain, Trinidad, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico and Jamaica view more

ECUADOR - Risk: Drug trafficking, theft and piracy at the Ecuadorian port of Guayaquil and Puerto Bolivar view more

SPAIN - Risk: vessels being used to traffic and/or smuggle contraband from North and West Africa though Algeciras (Spain) into European black markets view more

THE NETHERLANDS AND BELGIUM - Risk: vessels being used to traffic and/or smuggle contraband through the major shipping hubs of Antwerp and Rotterdam view more

LIBYA & SYRIA - Risk: Implications of the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean view more

INDONESIA AND PHILIPPINES - Risk: nickel ore liquefaction due to excessive moisture content during voyages from the Philippines and Indonesia view more

INDONESIA - Threat: of theft from ships at anchor view more

BANGLADESH - Risk of theft from ships anchoring in Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar view more

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Current Incidents
Enduring Risks
Listed Areas
Latest Incidents
16/01/2019 LC Posn 38.93 - 118.62

Background

Two robbers armed with an iron bar have boarded a bulk carrier in an anchorage off the port of Caofeidian in the north of China.

The International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre said the incident happened before dawn on the morning of January 12.

The intruders were spotted by the bulker’s crew and an alarm was raised.

The robbers fled before anything could be taken.

The incident was reported to the port authorities.

Assessment and Analysis

Reports of vessels being boarded in Caofeidian are unusual although incidents may go unrecorded.

In March 2018 details were published of at least two attempts.

In the first, three robbers in a small boat approached a bulk carrier at anchor and tried to board using hooks attached to ropes.

A few days later another bulk carrier was targeted, this time by robbers using a ladder.

Both attempted boardings took place at night.

In 2016 there were reports of thefts of bunkers, stores and spare parts from ships at Tianjin anchorage, to the west of Caofeidian.

Vessels using the anchorages of Caofeidian and neighbouring Tianjin should be vigilant for the approach of small craft, especially at night and in times of rough weather when high waves may limit radar signals.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

15/01/2019 Posn -34.135 - 25.759

Background

South African authorities have seized cocaine worth over $50 million from a container ship heading for Singapore and India.

Some 700 kilogrammes of the drug, in one-kilogramme bags, was found hidden among the container stacks.

South African police boarded MSC SPAIN on January 7 after it docked in Port Elizabeth to unload a portion of its cargo.

Police said they were responding to a tip off and had been working closely with Interpol locally and internationally.

The vessel had arrived in South Africa from Brazil.

The ship was not detained although reports say some containers were confiscated.

No arrests were made and police said there was no suspicion that the shipping company or crew were involved.

Assessment and Analysis

The cocaine is believed to have been smuggled on-board the MSC SPAIN while it was loading in the port of Santos in Brazil in late December.

Drug smugglers in Brazil regularly target commercial shipping.

Law enforcement authorities seized 13,500 kilogrammes of drugs in the port of between January and mid-August 2018.

In one operation 2,500 kilogrammes of illegal narcotics were seized from containers destined for Europe.

Ships calling at Brazilian ports should be aware that drug smugglers target their vessels.

Drugs are either placed directly on board or hidden inside containers before loading.

Crews should be vigilant against intruders while at berth and in anchorages and should monitor the approach of small craft.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

14/01/2019 LC Posn 6.306 - 3.4298

Background

Two tankers have been targeted by thieves in separate incidents in Lagos anchorages.

Both incidents took place before dawn on January 7.

The first attempted robbery involved a product tanker in the Lagos Secure Anchorage Area (SAA).

According to details posted by the International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre up to five robbers attempted to board the tanker from a small skiff.

They threw two ropes attached to hooks onto the tanker’s railings but were seen by the tanker’s crew and an alarm was raised before the vessel could be boarded.

A Nigerian Navy patrol boat searched the waters around the tanker but the intruders had fled.

The second incident took place some hours later in the Lagos anchorage designated for ship-to-ship (STS) transfer operations.

Two robbers boarded a tanker during a cargo transfer. They connected plastic hoses to the ullage ports of the forward cargo tanks in an attempt to steal product.

The thieves were spotted before any cargo could be stolen. An alarm was raised and the intruders escaped.

A Nigerian Navy patrol boat came to the tanker’s assistance.

Assessment and Analysis

The Lagos Secure Anchorage Area (SAA) and the Lagos ship-to-ship (STS) transfer area are patrolled by Nigerian naval forces.

Nevertheless there have been persistent reports of attacks on shipping inside the protected zones.

In October there were at least three reports of attempts by robbers to board vessels at anchor.

In December a small craft powered by an outboard motor approached a product tanker only to move away when the ship sounded an alarm.

Meanwhile local media have reported concerns about deteriorating security in the anchorages, which are operated by the Nigerian marine security company Ocean Marine Solutions in partnership with the Nigerian Navy.

Product tankers waiting for berths at Lagos jetties have been particular targets.

Attacks on ships typically take place at night and appear to be opportunistic.

In some cases intruders have been armed. They generally flee if confronted or when an alarm is raised.

Vessels in Lagos anchorages are advised to maintain a good visual and radar watch for small craft.

When possible they should illuminate their sides and ladders and ropes should be stowed away.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

09/01/2019 LC Posn 10.316 - -75.516

Background

Thieves boarded a container ship moored in the inner anchorage of the port of Cartagena, Colombia.

A deck watchman saw three intruders on the forward deck; he informed the ship’s duty officer who raised the alarm.

The Coast Guard was called and a search of the vessel showed the thieves had fled. Some of the ship’s stores were missing.

According to details posted by the International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre the incident happened shortly before midnight on January 2.

 

Assessment and Analysis

It is unusual to hear reports of sea-going vessels being targeted by thieves in Cartagena.

Instances of theft have generally involved yachts and dinghies and other small craft.

Ships should, however, maintain a strict watch while at anchor and be aware there could be attempts at boarding.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

09/01/2019 LC Posn 10.266 - -64.7

Background

There has been another attempt by thieves to board a vessel at anchor off Puerto La Cruz in Venezuela.

The International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre said the incident took place in darkness on January 3.

It said crew on duty saw a grappling hook being thrown onto the vessel’s poop deck.

An alarm was raised and the ship’s horn sounded.

The robbers, who had approached the vessel in a boat, abandoned their attempt to board and fled.

Assessment and Analysis

Robbers have been targeting ships at anchor in Venezuela, particularly at Puerto La Cruz and Puerto Jose.

In December armed men boarded a tanker in the Jose Anchorage off Puerto La Cruz and assaulted and threatened a crew member before making off with ship stores.

Attacks on ships in Venezuela’s ports have coincided with growing civil unrest and a deteriorating economy.

Vessels have generally been boarded at night with thieves targeting stores, cash and personal belongings. They are often armed and it is not uncommon for crew members to be threatened with violence.

Ships visiting Venezuelan ports and terminals should monitor the approach of any small craft. They should illuminate the main deck and possible points of access.

They should also fit hawse pipe covers to prevent thieves clambering up anchor chains to reach the deck.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

03/01/2019 Posn 5.466 - 2.35

Background

A container ship has come under attack 55 nautical miles off Cotonou, Benin.

According to a notice issued by NATO’s Maritime Domain Awareness for Trade – Gulf of Guinea (MDAT-GoG) – the incident took place soon after midnight on 2 January, 55 nautical miles south of Cotonou, Benin.

According to media reports several crew members have been reported missing, presumed kidnapped.

World Maritime News reported that a spokesman for MSC confirmed that the remaining crew and the vessel are safe. They are quoted as saying, “Out of respect for the missing crew members and their families, MSC has no further comment for the time being.”

Assessment and Analysis

According to IMB figures, there were at least five attacks on ships recorded near Cotonou, Benin and over 20 near Lagos, Nigeria during 2018, making these waters very high risk.

Attacks typically involved armed assailants coming alongside and climbing aboard using ladders, ropes and hooks.

Vessels in the area should exercise extreme caution and keep strict watches, especially at night.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

17/12/2018 LC Posn 10.227365803209825 - -64.66891479492188

Background

Robbers boarded a tanker in the Jose Anchorage off Puerto La Cruz in Venezuela and attacked the vessel’s watchman.

A report posted by the International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre said five attackers armed with knives overpowered the crew member.

He was tied up and threatened with death if he tried to raise an alarm.

The robbers then stole items from the ship’s store and took emergency food from the forward life raft. They were able to escape unmolested.

The incident happened on December 10 shortly after nightfall. It was reported to the authorities.

Assessment and Analysis

Attacks on ships in Venezuela’s ports have been increasing as the country struggles with a deteriorating economy.

Robbers have been targeting ships at anchor, including tankers visiting the Jose terminal, Venezuela’s main oil export hub.

There have been numerous reports of security problems at the terminal and its anchorages; in some cases robbers have masqueraded as government officials or members of the National Guard.

More generally vessels have been boarded at night with thieves targeting stores, crew members’ possessions and cash. They are often armed with knives and in some cases firearms.

It is not uncommon for crew members to be threatened with violence.

Ships visiting Venezuelan ports and terminals should monitor the approach of any small craft. They should illuminate the main deck and possible points of access.

They should also fit hawse pipe covers to prevent thieves clambering up anchor chains to gain access to the deck.

Ship crews should also be alert to the threat of improper conduct by a alleged officials. Identification documents should be scrutinised and the details recorded.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page

11/12/2018 LC Posn 5.38 - 118.5

Background

Abu Sayyaf, a Philippines-based terrorist group claiming allegiance to so-called Islamic State, has been linked to reports of a crew being seized from a fishing vessel in the Sulu Sea.

The Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery in Asia (ReCAAP) said three crewmen were kidnapped shortly after midnight on December 5.

It said about 20 armed attackers believed to be members of Abu Sayyaf had boarded the fishing vessel from speedboats.

According to ReCAAP the incident happened 12 nautical miles (nm) off Malaysia’s Sabah state on the island of Borneo.

Reports in Malaysian media confirmed that a deserted fishing boat had been found in the area with its engine running.

Malaysian officials said they were trying to verify what had happened. They only became aware there was a problem after the ship’s owner said he had lost contact with the crew.

Assessment and Analysis

ReCAAP warned in October that intelligence suggested Abu Sayyaf was planning new attacks on shipping.

The group has a record of kidnapping crews for ransom, often targeting tugs, barges and fishing boats.

The latest reported abduction took place in the same area a tug came under fire from attackers in a speedboat.

That attack was also reported to have taken place on December 5.

Vessels should try to avoid the Sulu and Celebes seas. If that is not possible they should maintain strict anti-piracy watches and monitor the approach of any small craft.

Reported and analysed by North and Gray Page